The reasoning, the papers, and the ongoing analysis behind SIGMA's committed forecasts. Access is for members.
The public tracker shows what SIGMA concludes. This is where the reasoning lives — the full analytical case behind each committed forecast, the analysis as it develops, and the pre-registered record in full.
The theatre and its constraints, the balance of interests, the anatomy of coercion, the pathways, where the risk concentrates, and the calibration.
The armistice as a structure rather than a pause, what each regime is actually optimising for, the pathways from incident to exchange, and why the ceiling holds.
The post-intervention arrangement and what holds it, the compliance the residual government will and will not give, and why the read is held by choice rather than by structure.
The Baltic as a test of Article 5 rather than a theatre of choice, what the cost barrier still holds, the pathways from hybrid pressure to armed incident, and the clock the coupling runs on.
The unsettled border and what has held it quiet, the proxy channels that blur attribution, the triggers that would carry it across, and the confidence the classification can bear.
The ceasefire as a structure under friction, what each side’s ladder actually permits, the pathways from incident to limited action, and where the nuclear ceiling holds.
Interim signal updates appear here as assessments are revised between full runs — a short note on what moved, and whether the committed distribution shifts. The record is in its opening period; the first updates will follow as conditions develop.
Geopolitical risk to the world’s critical shipping lanes: six corridors read on one frame — whether each most likely stays open, runs disrupted, or closes over the coming year — so they can be ranked against one another rather than met one headline at a time.
Every forecast SIGMA holds is committed before the outcome is known — a full distribution, a resolution date, and an objective criterion, fixed in an append-only ledger and scored on resolution. Each snapshot is fingerprinted and anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain, so no entry can be added, altered, or back-dated after the fact.
View the timestamp proof record →Write in with a thought on an assessment, a disagreement, or a situation worth flagging. Think of it as an ongoing conversation — the exchanges that prove most useful help shape where the analysis goes next.
matthew@sigmafutures.group →