SIGMA Futures
Eastern Europe · Territorial revision · 12-month forecast

Russia–Ukraine

Probability of conflict between Russia and Ukraine
26%
below the threshold of combat
74%
kinetic risk over the horizon
17
9
20
54
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 17%
No kinetic resolution 9%
Limited military action 20%
Major operation 54%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — a formal agreement is in place17%
Frozen — fighting stops without settlement9%
Both end kinetic conflict within the horizon. They differ in whether a settlement is reached.

A 74% chance of kinetic conflict over the coming year — the war’s continuation the modal outcome, with a negotiated settlement or a decisive break the lower-probability tails.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idRUS-UKR · 2026-06
committed2026-06-15
resolves2027-06-15
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencevery wide · ±19 ptsKU
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 54% probability the Russia–Ukraine war continues as a major operation through the twelve months to 15 June 2027.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · RUS-UKR · 2026-06

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1991Ukraine declares independence from the Soviet Union.
  2. 1994Ukraine transfers its inherited nuclear arsenal to Russia under the Budapest Memorandum.
  3. 1997Russia and Ukraine sign a friendship treaty recognising existing borders.
  4. 2014Russia annexes Crimea and armed conflict begins in eastern Ukraine.
  5. 2015The Minsk II measures are signed to address the Donbas conflict.
  6. 2019Ukraine enshrines NATO and European Union membership as constitutional objectives.
  7. 2021Russia concentrates large military forces along Ukraine's borders.
  8. 2022Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
  9. 2023Ukraine mounts a counteroffensive that yields limited territorial gains.
Recent developments
  1. August 2024Ukrainian forces launch a cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast.
  2. 2025Russian forces make incremental gains in the east while Ukraine strikes Russian energy infrastructure with long-range systems.
  3. June 2026Ukraine launches its largest drone attack on Moscow since the war began.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

The member area →
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The reasoning behind the forecast.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
Russia–NATO (Baltic)10%Armenia–Azerbaijan15%
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