SIGMA Futures
Eastern Europe · Territorial revision · 12-month forecast

Russia–Ukraine

Probability of conflict between Russia and Ukraine
25%
below the threshold of combat
75%
kinetic risk over the horizon
3
22
19
56
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 3%
No kinetic resolution 22%
Limited military action 19%
Major operation 56%
Two non-kinetic outcomes
Two kinetic outcomes
Settled — a settlement is in place3%
Open — the dispute continues below the threshold of combat, no settlement22%
Both remain below the threshold of combat. They differ in whether the underlying dispute has been settled.
Limited military action — military force is used, short of a major campaign19%
Major operation — a full-scale or multi-axis military campaign56%
Both cross the threshold of combat. The threshold is the use of military force: shots fired, a strike, an armed seizure. Ramming, water cannon and boardings remain below it, however serious, unless military force follows.

A 75% chance of kinetic conflict over the coming year — a war sustained by an air campaign that can no longer be fully intercepted and a ground front neither side can decisively break.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idRUS-UKR · 2026-07
committed2026-07-31
resolves2027-07-31
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencewide · ±14 ptsKU
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 75% probability of continued kinetic Russia–Ukraine conflict over the twelve-month horizon to 31 July 2027, with major combat operations continuing the modal outcome at 56%.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · RUS-UKR · 2026-07

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1991Ukraine declares independence from the Soviet Union.
  2. 1994Ukraine transfers its inherited nuclear arsenal to Russia under the Budapest Memorandum.
  3. 1997Russia and Ukraine sign a friendship treaty recognising existing borders.
  4. 2014Russia annexes Crimea and armed conflict begins in eastern Ukraine.
  5. 2015The Minsk II measures are signed to address the Donbas conflict.
  6. 2019Ukraine enshrines NATO and European Union membership as constitutional objectives.
  7. 2021Russia concentrates large military forces along Ukraine's borders.
  8. 2022Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
  9. 2023Ukraine mounts a counteroffensive that yields limited territorial gains.
Recent developments
  1. August 2024Ukrainian forces launch a cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast.
  2. 2025Russian forces make incremental gains in the east while Ukraine strikes Russian energy infrastructure with long-range systems.
  3. June 2026Ukraine launches its largest drone attack on Moscow since the war began.
  4. June–July 2026Putin expands war aims as record barrages strike Kyiv; Ukrainian deep strikes besiege Crimea and cut Russian refining.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

What informs this assessment primary sources

Selected public sources and institutional references.

Operational assessmentInstitute for the Study of War — daily campaign assessments tracking territorial change, offensive effectiveness, and the evolving battlefield situation.
Strategic assessmentInternational Institute for Strategic Studies — force posture, military balance, and reference analysis for the broader strategic environment.
Leadership assessmentUnit for the Study of Personality in Politics — academic personality assessments of Putin and Zelensky, contributing to the leadership decision-calculus inputs (CSB–SJU).
Escalation analysisGerman Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) — analysis supporting the assessment that nuclear signalling has largely tracked battlefield setbacks rather than fixed strategic intent.
Sanctions & financeCouncil of the European Union — official record of sanctions packages, financial measures, and their implementation.
LegislationU.S. Congress — primary legislative record for military aid, sanctions, and related statutory authorities.
Arms controlArms Control Association — reference material on New START’s expiry and the resulting absence of a bilateral strategic-arms ceiling.
Reference classUppsala Conflict Data Program — canonical academic conflict dataset supporting the reference-class and historical base-rate analysis.

Sources ground the facts above; the four-way decomposition and its derivation remain SIGMA's.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

The member area →
Members

The reasoning behind the forecast.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
Russia–NATO (Eastern flank)12%Armenia–Azerbaijan15%Serbia–Kosovo5%
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