SIGMA Futures
South Asia · Nuclear rivalry · 12-month forecast

India–Pakistan

Probability of conflict between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbours
60%
below the threshold of combat
40%
kinetic risk over the horizon
2
58
36
4
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 2%
No kinetic resolution 58%
Limited military action 36%
Major operation 4%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — the dispute is formally resolved2%
Unresolved — no combat, no settlement58%
Both remain below the threshold of combat. They differ in whether the dispute is resolved or simply remains open.

A 60% chance the coming year stays below the threshold of combat — a ceasefire that holds under friction, where the limited-action tail carries the live risk and a major war stays remote.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idIND-PAK · 2026-07
committed2026-07-21
resolves2027-07-21
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencewide · ±18 pts
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 64% probability of no kinetic India–Pakistan conflict in the twelve months to 21 July 2027, with a 32% limited-action tail.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · IND-PAK · 2026-07

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1947–48India and Pakistan fight their first war over Kashmir following the partition of British India.
  2. 1949A ceasefire line is established in Kashmir.
  3. 1965India and Pakistan fight their second war.
  4. 1971A third war ends with the independence of Bangladesh.
  5. 1972India and Pakistan sign the Simla Agreement.
  6. 1998India and Pakistan each conduct nuclear weapons tests.
  7. 1999The two engage in armed conflict in the Kargil sector.
  8. 2008Militants based in Pakistan carry out coordinated attacks in Mumbai.
  9. 2019India revokes the special autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir.
Recent developments
  1. April 2025A militant attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, kills 26 civilians.
  2. May 2025India conducts cross-border missile and air strikes on militant sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
  3. May 2025India and Pakistan agree a ceasefire after a four-day conflict.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

The reasoning behind the forecast.

The Foundation Paper sets out the complete analytical case behind this assessment — the strategic dynamics, the incentives, the competing pathways, and the calibration.

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The reasoning behind the forecast.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
China–India7%China–Taiwan16%North Korea–South Korea13%
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