A 60% chance the coming year stays below the threshold of combat — a ceasefire that holds under friction, a nuclear ceiling above it, and outside mediation that helped close the last round.
This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.
Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.
SIGMA's forecast resolves the confrontation into four possible outcomes over the coming twelve months: a continuation of the current armed standoff below the level of open military action; a limited military exchange short of full-scale war; a full-scale war; and a durable negotiated settlement of the underlying disputes. The committed probabilities for each outcome are set out above.
"War" can mean two materially different things here, and SIGMA assigns them to different outcomes, each with its own committed probability. A limited exchange — cross-border strikes, an air or missile clash, or a multi-day operation of the kind seen in 2019 and again in 2025 — is tracked as one outcome. A full-scale war involving sustained operations, deep air campaigns, and attempts to seize and hold territory is tracked as another. The two are not the same event, and the assessment above shows how each is weighed.
A nuclear exchange is treated as an extreme escalation pathway within the full-scale-war outcome, rather than as a separate outcome the forecast tracks. The assessment therefore does not assign a standalone probability to "nuclear war"; the risk is represented within the broader distribution above.
The assessment identifies the specific developments that would move it, and ties each to the outcome it would shift. SIGMA tracks these markers, and members receive its interim reading as the situation develops.
A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.
The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.
The Foundation Paper sets out the complete analytical case behind this assessment — the strategic dynamics, the incentives, the competing pathways, and the calibration underlying SIGMA's published forecast. Membership opens the full case, continuing analysis as it develops, and the Strategic Intelligence Dashboard for a wider view of this and other active dyads.
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