SIGMA Futures
Indo-Pacific · Great-power · 12-month forecast

U.S.–China

Probability of conflict between the United States and China as a direct great-power dyad
94%
below the threshold of combat
6%
kinetic risk over the horizon
4
90
5
1
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 4%
No kinetic resolution 90%
Limited military action 5%
Major operation 1%
Two non-kinetic outcomes
Two kinetic outcomes
Settled — a settlement is in place4%
Open — the dispute continues below the threshold of combat, no settlement90%
Both remain below the threshold of combat. They differ in whether the underlying dispute has been settled.
Limited military action — military force is used, short of a major campaign5%
Major operation — a full-scale or multi-axis military campaign1%
Both cross the threshold of combat. The threshold is the use of military force: shots fired, a strike, an armed seizure. Ramming, water cannon and boardings remain below it, however serious, unless military force follows.

A 94% chance the coming year stays below the threshold of combat — direct great-power war the overwhelmingly unlikely outcome, with residual tail risk concentrated in flashpoints neither can easily stand aside from.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idUSA-CHN · 2026-06
committed2026-06-21
resolves2027-06-21
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencetight · ±5 ptsKU
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 94% probability of no direct kinetic U.S.–China conflict in the twelve months to 21 June 2027.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · USA-CHN · 2026-06

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1972U.S. President Richard Nixon visits the People's Republic of China.
  2. 1979The United States and the People's Republic of China establish diplomatic relations.
  3. 1995–96PRC missile tests in the Taiwan Strait draw a U.S. naval deployment to the area.
  4. 2001A U.S. surveillance aircraft and a Chinese fighter collide over the South China Sea.
  5. 2011The United States announces a strategic rebalance toward the Asia-Pacific.
  6. 2015China completes major artificial-island construction in the Spratly Islands.
  7. 2018The United States reorients its defence strategy toward long-term competition with China.
  8. 2020The United States formally designates the People's Republic of China as its primary strategic competitor.
  9. 2022Large-scale PLA exercises encircle Taiwan following a visit by the U.S. Speaker of the House.
  10. 2023A Chinese high-altitude balloon transits U.S. airspace before being shot down.
Recent developments
  1. 2024–early 2025The two implement reciprocal tariff and technology-export escalations.
  2. October 2025Presidents Trump and Xi meet at the APEC summit in Busan and reach a trade agreement.
  3. Mid-2026The United States adds further Chinese technology companies to its Entity List.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

The member area →
Members

The reasoning behind the forecast.

The Foundation Paper sets out the complete analytical case behind this assessment — the strategic dynamics, the incentives, the competing pathways, and the calibration underlying SIGMA's published forecast. Membership opens the full case, continuing analysis as it develops, and the Strategic Intelligence Dashboard for a wider view of this and other active dyads.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
China–Taiwan16%China–Philippines15%North Korea–South Korea13%China–Japan4%North Korea–U.S.11%
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