SIGMA Futures
South Asia · Territorial · 12-month forecast

China–India

Probability of conflict between China and India, along the Line of Actual Control
93%
below the threshold of combat
7%
kinetic risk over the horizon
6
87
6
1
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 6%
No kinetic resolution 87%
Limited military action 6%
Major operation 1%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — the dispute is formally resolved6%
Unresolved — no combat, no settlement87%
Both remain below the threshold of combat. They differ in whether the dispute is resolved or simply remains open.

A 93% chance the coming year stays below the threshold of combat — the thaw holding, the kinetic tail small and inadvertent rather than deliberate.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idCHN-IND · 2026-07
committed2026-07-15
resolves2027-07-01
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencemoderate · ±9 pts
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 93% probability of no kinetic China–India conflict along the Line of Actual Control in the twelve months to 1 July 2027, with a 6% limited-action tail.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · CHN-IND · 2026-07

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1959A rift follows China's suppression of the Tibetan uprising and India's grant of asylum to the Dalai Lama.
  2. 1962China and India fight a month-long border war, establishing the Line of Actual Control.
  3. 1967Military clashes occur at the Nathu La and Cho La passes.
  4. 1993The two sign a peace-and-tranquility agreement along the Line of Actual Control.
  5. 2017A 73-day standoff occurs on the Doklam plateau.
  6. 2020A clash in the Galwan Valley causes the first border fatalities in decades.
  7. 2021–23Both deploy tens of thousands of additional troops to the western sector while holding commander talks.
Recent developments
  1. October 2024China and India reach an agreement on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control.
  2. 2025Both complete mutual disengagement and pull back troops from key friction points.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

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Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

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China–Taiwan16%India–Pakistan40%China–Philippines15%
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