SIGMA Futures
South Caucasus · Territorial · 12-month forecast

Armenia–Azerbaijan

Probability of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan
85%
below the threshold of combat
15%
kinetic risk over the horizon
25
60
10
5
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 25%
No kinetic resolution 60%
Limited military action 10%
Major operation 5%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — the dispute is formally resolved25%
Unresolved — no combat, no settlement60%
Both remain below the threshold of combat. They differ in whether the dispute is resolved or simply remains open.

An 85% chance the coming year stays below the threshold of combat — post-reconquest and settlement-forming, the core dispute resolved and the trajectory toward normalisation.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idARM-AZE · 2026-06
committed2026-06-15
resolves2027-06-15
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencewide · ±15 pts
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses an 85% probability of no kinetic Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict in the twelve months to 15 June 2027, with settlement the rising mode.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · ARM-AZE · 2026-06

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1988The Nagorno-Karabakh assembly votes to transfer the region to Armenian jurisdiction, and ethnic conflict follows.
  2. 1991–94War follows the Soviet dissolution and ends with Armenian forces controlling Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts.
  3. 1994The OSCE Minsk Group is created to co-chair peace negotiations.
  4. 2016The Four-Day War produces heavy clashes and minor territorial change.
  5. 2020A 44-day war lets Azerbaijan retake surrounding districts and part of Nagorno-Karabakh before a Russian-brokered ceasefire.
  6. 2022Azerbaijan establishes a checkpoint on the Lachin corridor.
  7. 2023Azerbaijan takes full control of Nagorno-Karabakh, and over 100,000 residents flee to Armenia.
Recent developments
  1. 2024–2025Border-demarcation talks advance alongside occasional frontier incidents.
  2. Mid-2025The two progress negotiations toward a comprehensive peace treaty.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

The member area →
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The reasoning behind the forecast.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
Russia–Ukraine74%Russia–NATO (Baltic)10%
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