SIGMA Futures
Levant · State–non-state · 12-month forecast

Israel–Hamas (Gaza)

Probability of conflict between Israel and Hamas
40%
below the threshold of combat
60%
kinetic risk over the horizon
10
30
43
17
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 10%
No kinetic resolution 30%
Limited military action 43%
Major operation 17%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — a formal agreement is in place10%
Frozen — fighting stops without settlement30%
Both end kinetic conflict within the horizon. They differ in whether a settlement is reached.

A 60% chance of kinetic conflict over the coming year — an asymmetric, fragile post-war truce where the major-war ceiling is choice-bound and the limited-action tail is the live risk.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idISR-HMS · 2026-06
committed2026-06-15
resolves2027-06-15
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencewide · ±18 pts
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 40% probability of no kinetic activity in Gaza in the twelve months to 15 June 2027, with a 43% limited-fighting mode.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · ISR-HMS · 2026-06

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1987Hamas is founded in the Gaza Strip during the first Palestinian Intifada.
  2. 2005Israel withdraws its settlers and forces from the Gaza Strip.
  3. 2006Hamas wins a majority in the Palestinian legislative elections.
  4. 2007Hamas takes control of Gaza, and Israel and Egypt impose a blockade.
  5. 2008–09Israel conducts Operation Cast Lead in response to rocket fire from Gaza.
  6. 2012Israel conducts Operation Pillar of Defence.
  7. 2014Israel conducts Operation Protective Edge.
  8. 2018–19Weekly demonstrations along the Gaza border fence lead to repeated fatal clashes.
  9. 2021An 11-day escalation follows friction in East Jerusalem.
  10. October 2023Hamas launches a large-scale attack on Israel, and Israel begins a major military operation in Gaza.
Recent developments
  1. 2024Israeli operations continue across Gaza, including a ground operation in Rafah, amid repeated ceasefire negotiations.
  2. January 2025A temporary hostage-and-ceasefire agreement takes effect and collapses within months, and Israeli operations resume.
  3. October 2025Israel and Hamas implement a U.S.-mediated ceasefire that releases the remaining living hostages.
  4. Early 2026Disputes persist over post-war governance and Hamas disarmament.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
Israel–Hezbollah62%Iran–U.S.73%Houthis–Red Sea shipping58%
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