SIGMA Futures
Red Sea · Chokepoint security · 12-month forecast

Houthis–Red Sea shipping

Probability of conflict between the Houthis and Red Sea shipping
42%
below the threshold of combat
58%
kinetic risk over the horizon
10
32
46
12
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 10%
No kinetic resolution 32%
Limited military action 46%
Major operation 12%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — a formal agreement is in place10%
Frozen — fighting stops without settlement32%
Both end kinetic conflict within the horizon. They differ in whether a settlement is reached.

A 58% chance of kinetic conflict over the coming year — a derivative node of the Gaza war, bounded disruption modal with the tail tracking the wider regional trajectory.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idHOU-RED · 2026-06
committed2026-06-19
resolves2027-06-19
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencewide · ±17 pts
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 42% probability of no kinetic disruption to Red Sea shipping in the twelve months to 19 June 2027, with a 46% limited-action mode.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · HOU-RED · 2026-06

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 2004The Houthi movement begins an armed insurgency against the Yemeni government in Saada.
  2. 2014Houthi forces seize the Yemeni capital Sana'a and advance toward Hodeidah.
  3. 2015A Saudi-led coalition intervenes in Yemen and imposes a naval blockade.
  4. 2016Houthi forces fire anti-ship missiles at U.S. and Emirati vessels near Bab-el-Mandeb.
  5. 2018The UN-mediated Stockholm Agreement halts an offensive on Hodeidah.
  6. 2022A UN-brokered nationwide truce sharply reduces hostilities.
  7. 2023The Houthis begin attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea and seize the Galaxy Leader.
Recent developments
  1. 2024–2025Houthi forces mount recurrent drone and missile attacks on shipping in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.
  2. October 2025Houthi attacks on shipping largely subside following regional ceasefires.
  3. Early 2026Houthi leadership threatens to resume attacks amid renewed regional escalation.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

The member area →
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The reasoning behind the forecast.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
Iran–U.S.73%Israel–Hamas (Gaza)60%Israel–Hezbollah62%
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