SIGMA Futures
Levant · Cross-border · 12-month forecast

Israel–Hezbollah

Probability of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah
38%
below the threshold of combat
62%
kinetic risk over the horizon
16
22
42
20
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 16%
No kinetic resolution 22%
Limited military action 42%
Major operation 20%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — a formal agreement is in place16%
Frozen — fighting stops without settlement22%
Both end kinetic conflict within the horizon. They differ in whether a settlement is reached.

A 62% chance of kinetic conflict over the coming year — Israel dominant and setting the tempo, a managed conflict with a choice-bound wider-war tail.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idISR-HEZ · 2026-06
committed2026-06-15
resolves2027-06-15
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencevery wide · ±20 ptsKU
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 38% probability of no kinetic activity on the Israel–Hezbollah front in the twelve months to 15 June 2027, with a 42% limited-action mode.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · ISR-HEZ · 2026-06

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1982Israel invades Lebanon, and Hezbollah forms in the aftermath.
  2. 1983Suicide bombings strike the U.S. embassy and the U.S. Marine and French barracks in Beirut.
  3. 1993Israel launches Operation Accountability against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
  4. 1996Israel conducts Operation Grapes of Wrath in southern Lebanon.
  5. 2000Israel withdraws its forces from southern Lebanon.
  6. 2006A 34-day war follows a Hezbollah cross-border raid and ends with UN Resolution 1701.
  7. 2013Hezbollah acknowledges its military intervention in the Syrian civil war.
  8. 2018Israel launches Operation Northern Shield to destroy cross-border tunnels.
  9. October 2023Hezbollah begins cross-border attacks on Israel following the outbreak of the Gaza war.
Recent developments
  1. November 2024Israel and Lebanon agree a 60-day ceasefire halting Israel–Hezbollah hostilities.
  2. 2025Israel conducts periodic strikes in Lebanon citing ceasefire violations.
  3. April 2026Israel and Lebanon agree an initial cessation of hostilities after a regional escalation.
  4. June 2026The two sign security agreements on removing armed operatives from southern Lebanon.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
Israel–Hamas (Gaza)60%Iran–U.S.73%Houthis–Red Sea shipping58%
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