SIGMA Futures
Southeast Asia · Border dispute · 12-month forecast

Thailand–Cambodia

Probability of conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, two ASEAN neighbours after a year of border war
57%
below the threshold of combat
43%
kinetic risk over the horizon
9
48
40
3
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 9%
No kinetic resolution 48%
Limited military action 40%
Major operation 3%
Two non-kinetic outcomes
Two kinetic outcomes
Settled — a settlement is in place9%
Open — the dispute continues below the threshold of combat, no settlement48%
Both remain below the threshold of combat. They differ in whether the underlying dispute has been settled.
Limited military action — military force is used, short of a major campaign40%
Major operation — a full-scale or multi-axis military campaign3%
Both cross the threshold of combat. The threshold is the use of military force: shots fired, a strike, an armed seizure. Ramming, water cannon and boardings remain below it, however serious, unless military force follows.

A 57% chance the coming year stays below the threshold of combat — a fragile young ceasefire after the worst border fighting in years, already broken once and re-signed.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idTHA-KHM · 2026-06
committed2026-06-15
resolves2027-06-15
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencewide · ±18 pts
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 57% probability of no kinetic Thailand–Cambodia border conflict in the twelve months to 15 June 2027, with a 40% limited-action tail.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · THA-KHM · 2026-06

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1904–07France and Siam fix the 817-kilometre boundary by treaty.
  2. 1962The International Court of Justice awards the Preah Vihear temple to Cambodia.
  3. 2000Thailand and Cambodia sign a memorandum on land-boundary demarcation.
  4. 2008UNESCO lists Preah Vihear as a World Heritage site, and nationalist protests and military deployments follow.
  5. 2008–11Periodic armed clashes occur between Thai and Cambodian troops near the temple.
  6. 2011Cambodia asks the International Court of Justice to interpret its 1962 judgment.
  7. 2013The court rules that the 1962 judgment gave Cambodia the whole Preah Vihear promontory.
  8. 2014The two agree to joint border patrols and to pull back heavy weapons near the temple.
Recent developments
  1. May–June 2025A Cambodian soldier is killed at Chong Bok; both sides close border checkpoints.
  2. July 2025Five days of fighting kill at least 43; Malaysia brokers a ceasefire on 28 July.
  3. October 2025Thailand and Cambodia sign the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords.
  4. November–December 2025A landmine wounds four Thai soldiers; Thailand suspends the accord and fighting resumes until a December ceasefire.
  5. February–May 2026Hun Manet says Thai forces occupy Cambodian territory; Thailand cancels the 2001 offshore-exploration memorandum.
  6. May–July 2026The prime ministers meet at ASEAN gatherings; demarcation stalls and 20,000 Cambodians remain displaced.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

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Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

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