SIGMA Futures
South China Sea · Maritime gray-zone · 12-month forecast

China–Philippines

Probability of conflict between China and the Philippines, in the South China Sea
85%
below the threshold of combat
15%
kinetic risk over the horizon
6
79
12
3
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 6%
No kinetic resolution 79%
Limited military action 12%
Major operation 3%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — the dispute is formally resolved6%
Unresolved — no combat, no settlement79%
Both remain below the threshold of combat. They differ in whether the dispute is resolved or simply remains open.

An 85% chance the coming year stays below the threshold of combat — a chronic maritime gray-zone standoff of incremental fait-accompli rather than a deliberate move to combat.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idCHN-PHL · 2026-06
committed2026-06-15
resolves2027-06-15
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencewide · ±14 pts
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses an 85% probability of no kinetic China–Philippines conflict in the twelve months to 15 June 2027.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · CHN-PHL · 2026-06

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1995China occupies Mischief Reef within the Philippine exclusive economic zone.
  2. 1999The Philippines grounds the BRP Sierra Madre on Second Thomas Shoal as an outpost.
  3. 2002China and ASEAN sign the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.
  4. 2012A standoff at Scarborough Shoal ends with China gaining de facto control.
  5. 2013The Philippines initiates arbitration against China under the Law of the Sea Convention.
  6. 2016An arbitral tribunal rules against China's maritime claims.
  7. 2021The Philippines protests the massing of Chinese vessels at Whitsun Reef.
  8. 2023Confrontations escalate around Second Thomas Shoal involving coast-guard water cannon and collisions.
Recent developments
  1. 2024–early 2025Chinese and Philippine vessels clash repeatedly at disputed South China Sea features.
  2. Mid-2025The Philippines expands defence cooperation with the United States.
  3. August 2025A collision near Scarborough Shoal between a Chinese navy vessel and a Philippine ship reportedly causes Chinese casualties.
  4. October 2025Philippine and Chinese coast-guard vessels clash near Thitu Island.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

The member area →
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The reasoning behind the forecast.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
China–Taiwan16%U.S.–China6%China–India7%
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