SIGMA Futures
East Asia · Armistice / nuclear standoff · 12-month forecast

North Korea–U.S.

Probability of conflict between North Korea and the United States
89%
below the threshold of combat
11%
kinetic risk over the horizon
1
88
10
1
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 1%
No kinetic resolution 88%
Limited military action 10%
Major operation 1%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — a settlement is in place1%
Open — below the threshold of combat, no settlement88%
Both remain below the threshold of combat. They differ in whether the underlying dispute has been settled.

An 89% chance the coming year stays below the threshold of combat — a war suspended for seven decades, with escalation more likely to begin through an incident than a decision for war.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idPRK-USA · 2026-08
committed2026-08-14
resolves2027-08-14
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencemoderate · ±9 pts
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses an 89% probability of no kinetic North Korea–U.S. conflict over the twelve-month horizon to 14 August 2027, with managed sub-kinetic competition the modal outcome at 88%.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · PRK-USA · 2026-08

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1950–53The Korean War is fought to a standstill and suspended by armistice, not by a peace treaty.
  2. 1968North Korea seizes the USS Pueblo; one American sailor is killed and the crew held for eleven months.
  3. 1969North Korean fighters shoot down a United States EC-121 reconnaissance aircraft, killing thirty-one.
  4. 1976Two American officers are killed at Panmunjom, prompting Operation Paul Bunyan.
  5. 1994The Agreed Framework freezes the North Korean plutonium programme in exchange for energy aid.
  6. 2003North Korea withdraws from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Six-Party Talks begin.
  7. 2006North Korea conducts its first nuclear test.
  8. 2017Hwasong-15 demonstrates intercontinental range; the sixth and most recent nuclear test is conducted.
  9. 2018–19Three Trump–Kim meetings are held; the Hanoi summit collapses and talks have not resumed since.
Recent developments
  1. 2022–23North Korea codifies its nuclear status in law and then in the constitution.
  2. June 2024North Korea and Russia sign a mutual-defence treaty; troops and munitions follow to the war in Ukraine.
  3. February 2026The Ninth Party Congress re-elects Kim Jong Un and fixes nuclear-weapon status as permanent.
  4. June 2026Xi Jinping makes a state visit to Pyongyang without mentioning denuclearisation; Trump signals he will turn to North Korea next.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

What informs this assessment primary sources

Selected public sources and institutional references.

Nuclear forcesStockholm International Peace Research Institute — warhead and fissile-material estimates underpinning the arsenal trajectory and the deterrent-ceiling reasoning.
Threat assessmentOffice of the Director of National Intelligence — the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, including the judgement that North Korea is likely to remain deterred.
Leadership assessmentUnit for the Study of Personality in Politics — personality-inventory profiles of Kim Jong Un and Trump on a common instrument, supplying the leadership decision-calculus tier.
Regional monitoring38 North (Stimson Center) — North Korean economic and monetary analysis — the 2026 currency depreciation and price surge feeding the regime-stress read.
Economic indicatorsBank of Korea — the authoritative external GDP estimate, including a third year of growth — placing the leadership in the gain domain.
Force postureCongressional Research Service — United States Forces Korea levels, the wartime operational control transition, and North Korean missile-programme reference products.
LegislationU.S. Congress — the statutory floor on United States troop strength in Korea and related authorities constraining alliance-posture change.
Alliance & armisticeUnited Nations Command / U.S. Forces Korea — armistice-management architecture, exercise parameters, and command-level characterisation of North Korean launch activity.

Sources ground the facts above; the four-way decomposition and its derivation remain SIGMA's.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

The member area →
Members

The reasoning behind the forecast.

The Foundation Paper sets out the complete analytical case behind this assessment — the strategic dynamics, the incentives, the competing pathways, and the calibration underlying SIGMA's published forecast. Membership opens this, and the wider body of work as it develops.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
North Korea–South Korea13%U.S.–China6%China–Taiwan16%
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