SIGMA Futures
East Asia · Maritime gray-zone · 12-month forecast

China–Japan

Probability of conflict between China and Japan
96%
below the threshold of combat
4%
kinetic risk over the horizon
2
94
4
0
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 2%
No kinetic resolution 94%
Limited military action 4%
Major operation 0%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — a settlement is in place2%
Open — below the threshold of combat, no settlement94%
Both remain below the threshold of combat. They differ in whether the underlying dispute has been settled.

A 96% chance the coming year stays below the threshold of combat — a coercion campaign fought through export controls and detentions, with kinetic escalation incident-shaped, not deliberate.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idCHN-JPN · 2026-08
committed2026-08-13
resolves2027-08-13
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencemoderate · ±10 ptsKU
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 96% probability of no kinetic China–Japan conflict in the twelve months to 13 August 2027, with a 3.7% limited-action tail.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · CHN-JPN · 2026-08

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1894–95Japan defeats Qing China; Shimonoseki cedes Taiwan, and Japan annexes the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
  2. 1937–45Japan and China fight the Second Sino-Japanese War.
  3. 1945Japan surrenders; Taiwan passes to Chinese administration and the Ryukyus, including the islands, to the United States.
  4. 1971–72The United States returns Okinawa and the islands to Japan; Beijing and Taipei lodge sovereignty claims.
  5. 1972–78Japan and China normalise relations and sign a peace treaty; Deng proposes shelving the islands dispute.
  6. 2010A trawler collision leads China to halt rare-earth shipments until Japan frees the captain.
  7. 2012Japan buys three of the islands; protests spread across Chinese cities and Chinese patrols become routine.
  8. 2013A Chinese frigate locks fire-control radar on a Japanese destroyer; China declares an air defence identification zone.
  9. 2014The two governments issue a four-point agreement acknowledging differing positions, ending a two-year freeze.
  10. 2023China bans Japanese seafood imports after Japan begins releasing treated water from Fukushima.
Recent developments
  1. November 2025Takaichi tells the National Diet a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan's survival; Beijing demands a retraction.
  2. December 2025Carrier-based Chinese fighters direct fire-control radar at Japanese F-15s southeast of Okinawa.
  3. January–February 2026China restricts rare-earth and dual-use exports to Japan, lists forty entities, and reimposes its seafood ban.
  4. May–August 2026China detains Japanese nationals on export-control charges; the two foreign ministers meet briefly at ASEAN in July.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

The member area →
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The reasoning behind the forecast.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
China–Taiwan16%China–Philippines15%U.S.–China6%
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