A 73% chance of kinetic conflict over the coming year — a war kept going by Iran's power to make escalation expensive and Washington's inability to offer terms Tehran can accept.
This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.
Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.
Rather than a single prediction, SIGMA's forecast maps the distinct paths the war now under way could take over the coming twelve months, resolving it into four outcomes: its continuation as a bounded war of strikes, blockade, proxy operations, and limited ground action; a de-escalation that falls below active strikes without a formal agreement; a negotiated settlement of the core dispute; and a major escalation, such as a full invasion aimed at occupation or regime change. The committed probabilities for each outcome are set out above.
"Invade" can describe two materially different pathways in this forecast, and SIGMA assigns them to different outcomes rather than to a single figure. A limited seizure of an island, enclave, or stretch of coast is treated as a continuation of the war already under way, within the bounded-conflict outcome. A full invasion aimed at occupation or regime change is a distinct and far more demanding undertaking, tracked separately as the major-escalation outcome. There is therefore no single "probability of invasion" in the assessment; the answer depends on what is meant by invasion.
SIGMA separates two ways the fighting could subside. A de-escalation winds the conflict down below the level of active strikes without a formal agreement; a negotiated settlement goes further, resolving the core dispute through a durable agreement. The forecast treats these as distinct outcomes because the conditions for the fighting to subside differ from those needed to resolve the underlying dispute. The probability assigned to each is set out above.
The assessment identifies the specific developments that would move it, and ties each to the outcome it would shift. SIGMA tracks these markers, and members receive its interim reading as the situation develops.
A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.
The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.
The Foundation Paper sets out the complete analytical case behind this assessment — the strategic dynamics, the incentives, the competing pathways, and the calibration underlying SIGMA's published forecast. Membership opens the full case, continuing analysis as it develops, and the Strategic Intelligence Dashboard for a wider view of this and other active dyads.
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