SIGMA Futures
Middle East · Nuclear-proxy rivalry · 12-month forecast

Iran–U.S.

Probability of conflict between Iran and the United States, on an active-war horizon
27%
below the threshold of combat
73%
kinetic risk over the horizon
2
25
60
13
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 2%
No kinetic resolution 25%
Limited military action 60%
Major operation 13%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — a formal agreement is in place2%
Frozen — fighting stops without settlement25%
Both end kinetic conflict within the horizon. They differ in whether a settlement is reached.

A 73% chance of kinetic conflict over the coming year — a war kept going by Iran's power to make escalation expensive and Washington's inability to offer terms Tehran can accept.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idIRN-USA · 2026-07
committed2026-07-29
resolves2027-07-29
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencevery wide · ±25 ptsKU
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 73% probability of continued kinetic Iran–U.S. conflict over the twelve-month horizon to 29 July 2027, with continued limited military action the modal path at 60%.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · IRN-USA · 2026-07

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1953A U.S.- and U.K.-backed coup removes Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh.
  2. 1979The Iranian Revolution deposes the Shah, and students seize the U.S. embassy and hold American personnel hostage.
  3. 1980The United States severs diplomatic relations with Iran.
  4. 1988A U.S. Navy warship shoots down an Iranian civilian airliner over the Persian Gulf.
  5. 1995–96The United States imposes comprehensive trade and investment sanctions on Iran.
  6. 2002The U.S. president names Iran as part of an “axis of evil”.
  7. 2015Iran and the P5+1 conclude the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
  8. 2018The United States withdraws from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and reimposes sanctions.
  9. 2020A U.S. airstrike in Baghdad kills Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, and Iran launches retaliatory missile strikes on U.S. bases.
Recent developments
  1. 2024–early 2025The United States maintains sanctions while pursuing limited indirect diplomatic contacts.
  2. February 2026The United States and Israel strike Iranian missile and drone infrastructure.
  3. April 2026A ceasefire takes effect after about forty days of combat.
  4. June 2026The United States and Iran sign a Memorandum of Understanding framing regional-security and nuclear talks.
  5. July 2026U.S. forces strike the Iranian coast after drone attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

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The reasoning behind the forecast.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
Israel–Hezbollah62%Houthis–Red Sea shipping58%Israel–Hamas (Gaza)60%
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