SIGMA Futures
South Asia · Cross-border sanctuary conflict · 12-month forecast

Pakistan–Afghanistan

Probability of conflict between Pakistan and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, on an active-war horizon
23%
below the threshold of combat
77%
kinetic risk over the horizon
0
23
69
8
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 0%
No kinetic resolution 23%
Limited military action 69%
Major operation 8%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — a formal agreement is in place0%
Frozen — fighting stops without settlement23%
Both end kinetic conflict within the horizon. They differ in whether a settlement is reached.

A 77% chance of kinetic conflict over the coming year — a war of strikes and reprisals whose every off-ramp breaks at the same unverifiable clause.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idPAK-AFG · 2026-07
committed2026-07-30
resolves2027-07-30
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencewide · ±15 pts
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses a 77% probability of continued kinetic Pakistan–Afghanistan conflict over the twelve-month horizon to 30 July 2027, with continued limited military action the modal path at 69%.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · PAK-AFG · 2026-07

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1893The Durand Line is drawn, dividing Pashtun territory between British India and Afghanistan.
  2. 1947Afghanistan casts the only vote against Pakistan's admission to the United Nations.
  3. 1961–63Diplomatic relations are severed and the border closes for nearly two years.
  4. 1979–89Soviet forces occupy Afghanistan; Pakistan hosts the mujahideen and millions of refugees.
  5. 1996Pakistan becomes one of three states to recognise the first Taliban government.
  6. 2001A US-led invasion removes the Taliban; much of its leadership relocates into Pakistan.
  7. 2007The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is founded as an umbrella of Pakistani militant factions.
  8. 2017Pakistan begins fencing the 2,640-kilometre Durand Line over Afghan objections.
  9. August 2021The Taliban retake Kabul as US and NATO forces withdraw.
  10. October 2023Pakistan begins mass expulsions of Afghan nationals under a repatriation plan.
Recent developments
  1. October 2025Operation Khyber Storm strikes Kabul and three provinces; Taliban forces attack border posts.
  2. October 2025A Doha ceasefire is agreed; Istanbul talks collapse over verifying action against the TTP.
  3. February 2026Pakistan declares open war and launches Operation Righteous Fury on Kabul and Kandahar.
  4. June–July 2026Afghanistan conducts its first airstrikes into Pakistan; fighting continues at weekly tempo.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

Foundation Paper in preparation.

The committed forecast above is the current read on this dyad. Its Foundation Paper is in the programme; the papers published so far are in the member area.

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Related theatres
Other theatres tracked by SIGMA.
India–Pakistan40%Iran–U.S.73%
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