Russia–NATO (Eastern flank)
Two non-kinetic outcomes
Two kinetic outcomes
An 88% chance the coming year stays below the threshold of combat — major war constrained by Russia’s military commitment in Ukraine, with the live kinetic risk a deniable test of NATO’s attribution and resolve.
This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.
- 1997NATO and Russia sign the Founding Act establishing the NATO-Russia Council.
- 2004Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania join NATO, and Baltic Air Policing begins.
- 2007Estonia is hit by large-scale cyberattacks amid a dispute with Russia.
- 2014NATO adopts a Readiness Action Plan to reinforce its eastern flank.
- 2016NATO agrees to deploy multinational battlegroups to the Baltic states and Poland.
- 2018The United States begins rotating armoured brigades through the Baltic region.
- 2022NATO activates its defence plans and scales up its forward-deployed battlegroups.
- 2023Finland joins NATO.
- 2024–2025NATO sustains Enhanced Forward Presence rotations and expands Baltic air policing.
- Mid-2025Finland and Sweden complete integration into NATO command and exercise structures.
- September 2025Poland reports a Russian drone airspace breach, raising eastern-flank alert levels.
Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.
Finland’s accession in 2023 and Sweden’s in 2024 left the Baltic ringed by alliance members, with two exceptions: the eastern end of the Gulf of Finland at St Petersburg, and Kaliningrad, an exclave of about a million people wedged between two NATO states. Russian naval movement from either position passes through waters bordered by NATO territory.
For a major operation that geometry is close to prohibitive, and the war in Ukraine closes what remains. The formations facing the alliance are being expanded from brigades into divisions on paper while staying under-strength in fact. The one land route into the Baltic states, the sixty-five-kilometre Suwałki corridor, is being fortified from both ends.
The same geography forces both sides into sustained proximity. Two to three permanent Russian armed patrols are now stationed in the Gulf of Finland, and Estonia stopped boarding vessels in its own economic zone in April, its navy commander judging the risk of escalation too high. Kaliningrad’s satellite-navigation spoofing installations grew from three to thirty-six in fifteen months, with a footprint of roughly 450 kilometres across seven states.
The geography therefore enters the forecast twice. It raises the cost of a large campaign, and it makes contact difficult to avoid.
A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.
- Entering an unfamiliar market
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- International travel planning (travel risk and duty of care)
- Monitoring regions important to your organisation
The reasoning behind the forecast.
The Foundation Paper sets out the complete analytical case behind this assessment — the strategic dynamics, the incentives, the competing pathways, and the calibration.
The reasoning behind the forecast.
The Foundation Paper sets out the complete analytical case behind this assessment — the strategic dynamics, the incentives, the competing pathways, and the calibration underlying SIGMA's published forecast. Membership opens the full case, continuing analysis as it develops, and the Strategic Intelligence Dashboard for a wider view of this and other active dyads.
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