SIGMA Futures
Latin America · Hemispheric coercion · 12-month forecast

U.S.–Venezuela

Probability of conflict between the United States and Venezuela
82%
below the threshold of combat
18%
kinetic risk over the horizon
10
71
14
5
threshold of combat
Negotiated settlement 10%
No kinetic resolution 71%
Limited military action 14%
Major operation 5%
›Two non-kinetic outcomes
Settled — the dispute is formally resolved10%
Unresolved — no combat, no settlement71%
Both remain below the threshold of combat. They differ in whether the dispute is resolved or simply remains open.

An 82% chance the coming year stays below the threshold of combat — a post-intervention arrangement stable by choice, with no structural floor beneath it.

The committed forecast
On the record COMMITTED
ledger idUS-VEN · 2026-07
committed2026-07-15
resolves2027-07-01
horizon12 months
frameworkSIGMA
confidencemoderate · ±12 ptsKU
Resolution. Scored at horizon against the realised outcome — no kinetic conflict, a limited action, or a major operation — and logged to the append-only ledger.
Cite this forecast
SIGMA Futures Group assesses an 82% probability of no renewed kinetic U.S.–Venezuela conflict in the twelve months to 1 July 2027, with a 14% bounded-strike tail.
SIGMA Forecast Ledger · US-VEN · 2026-07

This decomposition reflects SIGMA's published judgement as of the assessed date. It is a committed, point-in-time position rather than a live figure; ongoing working analysis is available to members.

Forecast evolution record building
No kinetic resolution Negotiated settlement Limited military action Major operation
Four-way outcome probability at each committed vintage. Nodes are the assessments; connecting lines are indicative only.
Strategic timeline
Historical
  1. 1999Hugo Chávez becomes president and steers Venezuela toward an anti-U.S. foreign policy.
  2. 2006The United States imposes an arms embargo on Venezuela.
  3. 2015A U.S. executive order declares Venezuela a national-security threat and imposes targeted sanctions.
  4. 2017The United States bars dealings in new Venezuelan government and PDVSA debt.
  5. 2019The United States recognises Juan Guaidó as interim president and imposes a broad embargo.
  6. 2020The U.S. Justice Department indicts President Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism charges.
  7. 2023The United States eases some oil sanctions after a government–opposition agreement in Barbados.
Recent developments
  1. July 2024Venezuela holds a disputed presidential election whose certified result the United States rejects.
  2. 2024–early 2025The United States sustains sanctions pressure on the Venezuelan government.
  3. January 2026U.S. forces conduct an operation in Venezuela that results in the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

Curated for strategic significance, not completeness. The timeline provides context; the Foundation Paper explains the assessment.

Intended use

A calibrated read of one question — to be weighed against your own judgement. SIGMA is designed for decisions where understanding the strategic context matters more than following daily headlines.

Members

The reasoning behind the forecast.

The Foundation Paper sets out the complete analytical case behind this assessment — the strategic dynamics, the incentives, the competing pathways, and the calibration.

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The reasoning behind the forecast.

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