Please read this first. SIGMA Futures Group publishes probabilistic analysis and forecasts about geopolitical events. This material is provided for information and analysis only. It is not financial, investment, trading, legal, security, or other professional advice, and it is not a recommendation to take or refrain from any action. These terms apply to everyone who uses the site — including visitors viewing the free tracker and forecasts, not only paying members.
Forecasts are expressed as probabilities about uncertain future events. A probability is not a prediction or a guarantee. You are solely responsible for any decision you make, and you rely on this material entirely at your own risk. If you do not accept these terms, please do not use the service.
These Terms & Conditions (the “Terms”) govern all access to and use of the SIGMA Futures Group website, forecast tracker, forecasts and decompositions, member area, foundation papers, signal updates, ledger, and related materials and services (together, the “Service”) — whether you are a visitor browsing the public tracker and forecasts, a registered free user, or a paying member. By accessing or using any part of the Service, or by creating an account or purchasing a membership, you agree to be bound by these Terms. If you are entering into these Terms on behalf of an organisation, you represent that you are authorised to bind that organisation. If you do not agree, you must not access or use the Service.
The Service is operated by Matthew Robert Keogh, an Australian sole trader (ABN 93 108 837 480) trading as “SIGMA Futures Group” (“SIGMA”, “we”, “us”, “our”). SIGMA produces probabilistic geopolitical conflict forecasting: analytical assessments, foundation papers, signal and delta updates, a forecast tracker, and a pre-registered, scored forecast ledger, delivered through the website and the member area. The Service comprises publicly available forecasting products, together with member-only analytical publications and updates provided through the member area. Commissioned assessments and other bespoke engagements are separate from the Service and are governed by the engagement terms agreed for them; these Terms continue to apply except to the extent expressly varied by a written agreement.
This section is central to your use of the Service.
The Service is provided on an “as is” and “as available” basis. To the maximum extent permitted by law, SIGMA makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, including as to accuracy, completeness, currency, reliability, availability, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. SIGMA does not warrant that any forecast will prove accurate, that the analysis is free from error, or that the Service will be uninterrupted, secure, or error-free. Any reliance you place on the Service is at your own risk. Nothing in these Terms excludes, restricts, or modifies any consumer guarantee, right, or remedy that cannot lawfully be excluded under the Australian Consumer Law or other applicable law.
SIGMA is a publisher of analysis and opinion about geopolitical events. SIGMA does not provide financial product advice within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth): its forecasts and assessments concern the likelihood of geopolitical events, not any financial product, and are not intended, and must not be taken, to influence any person in making a decision in relation to any financial product. SIGMA does not deal in, arrange, or advise on any financial product; does not act as an investment adviser, financial adviser, broker, dealer, or fiduciary; and does not hold, and is not required to hold, an Australian Financial Services Licence in relation to the Service described in these Terms. Nothing in the Service, and no communication with you, creates any advisory, fiduciary, agency, or professional-client relationship between you and SIGMA.
You are solely and exclusively responsible for any decision you make or action you take (or do not take) based on, or influenced by, the Service. You acknowledge that geopolitical forecasting is inherently uncertain and that outcomes frequently differ from assessed probabilities. You agree to obtain independent professional advice appropriate to your circumstances before relying on any part of the Service, and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, you accept all risk arising from your use of, or reliance on, the Service.
To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, in no event will SIGMA (or its principal, employees, contractors, or affiliates) be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, consequential, exemplary, or punitive damages, or for any loss of profits, revenue, capital, data, goodwill, or opportunity, arising out of or in connection with the Service or your reliance on any content, whether based in contract, tort (including negligence), or any other legal theory, and whether or not SIGMA has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
To the maximum extent permitted by law, SIGMA’s total aggregate liability arising out of or relating to the Service will not exceed the total fees you paid to SIGMA in the twelve (12) months immediately preceding the event giving rise to the claim, or AUD 100 where you have paid no fees.
Some liabilities and consumer guarantees cannot lawfully be excluded (including under the Australian Consumer Law). Nothing in these Terms excludes or limits any such liability; where liability cannot be excluded but can be limited, SIGMA’s liability is limited to the greatest extent permitted by law.
To the extent permitted by law, you agree to indemnify, defend, and hold harmless SIGMA and its principal, employees, contractors, and affiliates from and against any claims, demands, losses, liabilities, damages, costs, and expenses (including reasonable legal fees) arising out of or relating to your use of the Service, your reliance on any content, your breach of these Terms, or your violation of any law or the rights of any third party.
All content in the Service — including foundation papers, forecasts, the ledger, the underlying framework and methodology, text, data, charts, and design — is owned by SIGMA or its licensors and is protected by intellectual-property laws. Subject to these Terms and your payment of any applicable fees, SIGMA grants you a limited, personal, non-exclusive, non-transferable, revocable licence to access and use the content for your own reference. A membership is a single named-user licence: access is personal to you as the named member and is not to be shared with, or accessed or used by, any other person, including others within your organisation. Institutional and multi-user access — covering additional named users within an organisation — is available by separate arrangement.
You must not reproduce, republish, redistribute, resell, sublicense, share, or make available any content (including foundation papers or member-area materials) to any other person, including within your organisation, nor use it to build or train any derivative, competing, or commercial product or service, without SIGMA’s prior written consent. Brief quotation with clear attribution to “SIGMA Futures Group” is permitted for the purposes of commentary, review, or reference. You must not circumvent, disable, or attempt to bypass any access control, paywall, or security measure.
Certain parts of the Service require a paid membership. Membership is offered on the terms and at the prices displayed at the time of purchase; all prices are in US dollars (USD). Payments are processed by our third-party payment provider, Stripe; by purchasing, you also agree to Stripe’s terms, and you authorise recurring charges where applicable. Unless stated otherwise, subscriptions renew automatically for successive annual periods until cancelled.
You may cancel at any time through the member area or the billing portal. Cancellation stops future renewals and takes effect at the end of your current paid period; you retain access until then. You may also change your membership — for example, upgrading from an individual to an institutional membership — at any time; an upgrade takes effect immediately, the price difference for the remainder of your current period is charged on a pro-rata basis, and future renewals are at the price for the upgraded membership. Refunds: fees already paid are non-refundable, except where a refund is required by law (including under the Australian Consumer Law). SIGMA may change its fees for future periods; any change will not affect a period you have already paid for, and founding-member pricing is addressed in section 11.
Founding membership is offered to members who join during SIGMA’s founding period, at the founding rate displayed at the time of purchase. SIGMA will honour that founding rate for the duration of your continuous membership: for so long as your membership remains active and is not cancelled or allowed to lapse, your rate will not be increased, even if SIGMA sets higher prices for members who join later. If your membership is cancelled or lapses, any subsequent membership will be at the then-current rate, and founding status and pricing may no longer be available. These founding terms apply to both individual and institutional founding memberships; a member who upgrades to a higher tier during the founding period keeps founding pricing on the upgraded membership, while an upgrade after the founding period is at the then-current rate. SIGMA may end the founding period, or change founding terms for members who have not yet joined, at any time.
You agree not to: (a) access the Service by any means other than the interfaces we provide; (b) scrape, harvest, or bulk-download content; (c) share, resell, or provide access to your account or the content to others; (d) circumvent any access control or paywall; (e) interfere with or disrupt the Service; or (f) use the Service for any unlawful, infringing, or harmful purpose.
You are responsible for maintaining the confidentiality of your account credentials and for all activity that occurs under your account. You agree to notify SIGMA promptly of any unauthorised use. To the extent permitted by law, SIGMA is not liable for any loss arising from unauthorised use of your account.
Each forecast reflects SIGMA’s assessment as at a stated vantage date and horizon, and may be revised or superseded by a later dated assessment; superseded assessments are retained as part of SIGMA’s append-only forecasting ledger. SIGMA’s scored calibration record reflects past performance only and is not a representation, warranty, or guarantee of future accuracy. Figures shown in the Service are those recorded in SIGMA’s ledger as at the stated date and may change as assessments are updated or resolved.
SIGMA collects and processes limited personal data to operate the Service and your membership. This section describes how we handle personal data.
SIGMA may modify, suspend, or discontinue any part of the Service, and may amend these Terms, at any time. Where changes are material, we will indicate this by updating the effective date above and by notifying members by email. Your continued use of the Service after changes take effect constitutes your acceptance of the amended Terms.
SIGMA may suspend or terminate your access to the Service, with or without notice, if you breach these Terms or if we reasonably consider it necessary. On termination, your licence to access the content ends, and the sections of these Terms that by their nature should survive (including intellectual property, disclaimers, limitation of liability, indemnification, and governing law) will continue to apply.
These Terms, and any dispute arising out of or in connection with them or the Service, are governed by the laws of Queensland and the Commonwealth of Australia, without regard to conflict-of-laws rules. Before commencing any proceedings, the parties will first attempt in good faith to resolve any dispute informally by contacting one another. If the dispute is not resolved within a reasonable period, you agree that the courts of Queensland, Australia, will have non-exclusive jurisdiction, except that SIGMA may seek urgent injunctive relief in any competent court.
These Terms (together with any policies referenced in them) constitute the entire agreement between you and SIGMA regarding the Service and supersede any prior agreements. If any provision is held to be unenforceable, the remaining provisions will continue in full force, and the unenforceable provision will be modified to the minimum extent necessary. SIGMA’s failure to enforce any provision is not a waiver of it. You may not assign these Terms without SIGMA’s consent; SIGMA may assign them in connection with a transfer of its business. Nothing in these Terms creates any partnership, joint venture, or agency between you and SIGMA.
Questions about these Terms can be sent to contact@sigmafutures.group.