This is a dense period of overlapping strategic risk, and most serious assessment of it happens out of public view. SIGMA keeps an open, committed record of where the world's active conflicts are heading, and publishes it to support transparency and informed public discussion. For deeper institutional-level work, a fuller picture of shared risk is available through membership and commissioned work.
Every active dyad on one map, sized and coloured by kinetic risk — the full picture at a glance. Each is decomposed four ways, committed to a time-stamped ledger before it resolves, and scored against what happens.
Open the tracker →The ledger has just opened. Every forecast is scored only as it resolves — the record here begins at the first resolution and is never backfilled or revised after the fact. Until then the score stands empty, on purpose.
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The tracker carries SIGMA's current committed assessment for each situation, decomposed and dated. Membership opens access to the reasoning behind it — the Foundation Papers that set out the full analytical case for each, and interim signal updates issued as assessments are revised.
SIGMA forecasts begin with a structured assessment of the forces shaping each confrontation, including incentives, capabilities, bargaining conditions, political constraints, escalation pathways, and the signals most likely to change them.
These inputs are integrated within a common forecasting framework and tested against the strongest case for a different outcome before a probability is committed. The reasoning behind each probability therefore remains explicit and open to subsequent evaluation.
Yes. AI extends SIGMA's research, synthesis, and drafting capacity, particularly where large volumes of conflicting evidence must be compared across multiple active confrontations.
Human judgement remains responsible for the framework, the interpretation, and the forecast itself. Probabilities are committed by SIGMA, timestamped in the forecasting ledger, and scored against subsequent outcomes. AI helps us see more; it does not inherit responsibility for what we conclude.
A committed forecast does not change. The assessment can.
Once committed, a forecast remains in the ledger with its original probability, horizon, and date. New evidence may change SIGMA's current view, but it does not rewrite the earlier record. Material changes are documented through subsequent assessments and interim signal updates, while the original commitment remains available for scoring.
This separation allows the analysis to remain responsive without making the track record retrospective.
SIGMA maintains a committed forecasting ledger as the foundation of its assessments. Where appropriate, forecasts are published openly to promote transparency, accountability, and informed public discussion. Membership, commissioned work, and voluntary support sustain that work. If you value independent, transparent geopolitical forecasting, you can help keep the public record open.
Support the Public RecordStructured forecasting can help reveal where systems appear most sensitive to change, making it easier to distinguish interventions likely to be consequential from those that merely respond to symptoms. Done well, it progressively uncovers the relationships that make some futures more likely than others, clarifying where different choices still matter.
Once those relationships are better understood, the question naturally shifts from prediction to participation: which of these relationships are fixed constraints, and which remain open to influence? SIGMA's orientation toward forecasting is not, finally, to demonstrate foresight, but to help widen the space in which wiser collective action remains possible.
A risk of forecasting is that as strategies accumulate, uncertainty can seem increasingly tamed. Yet if every scenario quietly converges on the same worldview, planning ceases to explore possibility and begins reproducing inevitability. The result is not resilience, but self-enclosure.
Every forecast is ultimately a hypothesis about structure rather than an assertion about destiny. Even highly probable futures remain embedded within living systems that can still learn, adapt, and — under the right conditions — change course.